For 2026, two major commodity price trends are forecasted to stand out in the South African mining sector, says mining industry employers association Minerals Council South Africa economist André Lourens.

He explains that the prices of gold and platinum group metals (PGMs) are expected to continue their upward momentum throughout the year, which should support higher revenues and improved profitability for domestic producers.

“While physical production volumes remain subdued, stronger prices imply higher sales and increased fiscal contributions through taxes and royalties,” adds Lourens.

For bulk commodities such as chrome and manganese, 2025 was a record year for both exports and production, he highlights.

Lourens stresses this positive momentum is expected to carry into 2026, assuming market conditions remain broadly stable.

In contrast, iron-ore and coal are expected to face more headwinds this year, owing to global trade uncertainty which is exerting downward pressure on prices, while South Africa’s key markets, notably China and India, are currently in a “geopolitical standoff” with the US, he says.

“This environment is weighing on global growth prospects and, by extension, commodity demand,” explains Lourens.

Projections of the South African mining sector indicate that production in 2025 was expected to increase by about 1% compared with 2024 levels.

“In this context, any subsequent growth in the sector in 2026 would be considered positively,” adds Lourens.

He adds that South Africa’s mining industry remains influenced by ongoing challenges, notably elevated electricity costs and persistent logistics bottlenecks, although there have been some gains in operational efficiency in these areas.

“These issues will remain a drag until addressed more decisively,” adds Lourens.

Shining Metals

The commodities that are expected to “shine” in 2026 include chrome, manganese, gold and PGMs, says Lourens, adding that chrome and manganese – which are essential inputs in stainless steel, ferrochrome and various industrial applications – are expected to see steady demand, particularly if the Chinese economy maintains its current momentum.

Further, gold prices will continue to benefit from heightened geopolitical and trade tensions, while PGM prices are strengthening on the back of rising investment and jewellery demand, combined with tightening supply that has pushed the market into deficit, he adds.

“These trends are likely to persist into 2026,” adds Lourens.

Although the majority of South African commodities are exempt from the tariffs implemented by the US’ Trump administration, diamonds, metal jewellery, granulated slag and iron-ore have been affected by the 30% import tariff, highlights Lourens.

Diamonds mined in South Africa are routed through alternative trading hubs such as Botswana, so the direct impact of any tariffs has been limited, he adds.

“However, the indirect impact– through weaker demand and softer prices – is still being felt,” says Lourens.

“Regrettably, the South African diamond industry is already grappling with an existential challenge as rough diamonds face intense competition from laboratorygrown diamonds, making tariff issues relatively ‘small fish’ in comparison,” he continues.

Additionally, Lourens points out that iron-ore and concentrate exports to the US fell to negligible levels in 2025, likely in an effort to avoid the tariffs.

“Given the small export volumes involved, this is not a significant concern at present,” he says.

This Year’s Challenges

The development of the new Mineral Resources Development Bill is likely to be of key interest for the Minerals Council, its members and the South African mining industry, says Minerals Council South Africa spokesperson Allan Seccombe.

He explains the first iteration of the Mineral Resources Development Bill presented in May 2025, did not effectively promote or sustain the growth and investment necessary for the mining industry to reach its full potential.

“Such progress is vital for job creation, economic stimulation and fulfilling the industry’s social responsibilities,” he stresses.

In August 2025, the Minerals Council submitted a formal response and subsequently engaged in constructive discussions with the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources, stressing that a supportive regulatory and operational environment is crucial for the South African mining sector’s success.

“It is imperative that the regulatory framework encourages investment in exploration, mine development and the maintenance of existing operations,” says Seccombe.

Importantly, such an environment will facilitate industry growth, employment generation and the creation of wealth that benefits all South Africans.

In terms of industrial revitalisation stimulation, Seccombe says the mining industry welcomes the recent renewal of uninterrupted electricity supplies, following prolonged periods of loadshedding and consequent uncertainty.

Here, he says partnership between the public and private sectors has been instrumental in ensuring reliable electricity provision, highlighting the significance of the Minerals Council’s efforts to engage the government on inclusive solutions to the national crises.

However, the prevailing high cost of electricity remains a significant challenge for the industry, particularly for energy-intensive sectors, such as smelting.

Over the past 20 years, electricity tariffs for large industrial users, including mines and smelters, have increased by over 900%.

As of the end of January, only eight out of South Africa’s 67 smelters remain operational – a decline driven largely by escalating electricity prices and aging infrastructure.